This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests a bit and I like the new selection of contests and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy and $30k goes to 1st place. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $30k prize. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into cash games.
Money Game play of the week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am really not loving this slate for money games, and that I was only going to decide on the principal event stack for my cash game play of this week. However, I can see the main event just scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young makes a fantastic cash game play. I don’t understand how large of a ceiling he has because I do think this struggle goes all 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting completed. I think he’s a high floor because this battle should go all 3 rounds, but I presume he’s the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of wrestling and striking. I really do think he’s 100-point upside in a decision, and that I also think he could finish this fight. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that is why he’s my money game play of the week rather than my GPP play. GPP play of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only real way Kang loses this fight is by becoming KO’d. He must be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the toes as well. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does have hefty power in his hands I think Kang includes a floor of 0 things, but that is why he is my GPP play of the week and not my cash game play of the week. In cash, I want to lock in higher flooring and that’s not what we’ve got here. I enjoy this for GPPs because if he loses $9.4k it won’t matter how many points he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we might still come off with a profit if he dropped a determination at the price and still scored 30-40 points, we would just need to hit our other spots. We do not want 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. So, we can take the chance on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside since he is going to be the fighter attempting to grapple and I could see him getting multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I believe he has a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to endure too long with Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I like him as a pivot from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog drama of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this struggle to stay position for as long as it continues. I personally find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is the case, then I believe Gastelum has the maximum floor of the underdogs because he’ll have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a reasonable number of shots. I also think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that may not place him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or conclusion, he’ll probably be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3additional salary. That’s why he’s my underdog drama of this week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must remain on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have chosen him as my fade every time he’s fought so I am going to roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is simply not beneficial for DraftKings. The only way Alvey can possibly score tremendously is by obtaining a knockout win. He does not strike a high enough speed to score highly in a decision and he will not be heading for any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that might not be enough to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x out of a fighter once I roll them and with his $7.9k price label, that means I want at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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