From a fan’s standpoint, UFC 231 is a wonderful event. In terms of betting opportunities, I’m feeling lukewarm. But here are my breakdowns of the fights that I’m trying to play. Gilbert Burns vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Decorated jiu-jitsu champion and second degree black belt, Gilbert Burns, has been operating on his striking in recent years. Training beneath famed Dutch kickboxer, Henri Hooft, Burns is now comfortable wherever the battle takes place.
With his newfound striking abilities, Burns scored strong knockout victories over Jason Saggo and Dan Moret. Unfortunately, preferring to bang Dan Hooker proved to be disastrous and Burns was finished in his final struggle. I lost money thinking Burns would grapple — oh well!
Even though a solid striker, Burns takes risks defensively and heaps up on his shots. Dan Hooker is the kind of fighter that could capitalize on defensive lapses — but I’m not sure Olivier Aubin-Mercier is.
Coming from a judo background, Aubin-Mercier is immensely strong from the clinch and heavy from top position. While he’s a whole lot more skilled on the feet than he used to be, Aubin-Mercier still lacks the fluidity of someone that’s a pure striker. He’s light on his toes, in and out with his movement and somewhat undependable — but is true when he flames.
While Aubin-Mercier is a jiu-jitsu brown belt, I doubt he would like to go to the mat with Burns. The muscle-bound human blanket, Michel Prazeres, refused to dive into the protector of Gilbert Burns — which speaks volumes.
In his last battle, Aubin-Mercier appeared a step behind in the scrambles against Alexander Hernandez and I’d expect a master of body manipulation like Gilbert Burns to dominate on the mat as well (though I wish there was more footage of Burns fighting off his back to make a better assessment).
I think the striking exchanges will be competitive, but I give Burns a slight edge. Stylistically, this looks tricky for Aubin-Mercier and that I can not predict his approach. Perhaps the Canadian will attempt to control his opponent against the fence, but without shooting takedowns?
I really do believe Aubin-Mercier is the better athlete and has the cardio. Still, I will take my chances with Gilbert Burns as a +120 underdog like I think he must be a small favorite.
Elias Theodorou vs. Eryk Anders
At a middleweight showdown between two boxers with contrasting styles (and personalities), Eryk Anders takes on Elias Theodorou.
A great athletic, Anders is volatile yet has good cardio. Fighting from the southpaw stance, Anders packs enormous electricity in his left hand but in my view, goes head searching a bit too much. In his final bout, Thiago Santos was well prepared for the key weapon of Anders — which restricted his offensive victory.
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