At 29 decades old Martin is coming into his prime. Undefeated in Welterweight he is showing huge improvements in both skill and struggle IQ. Martin is a BJJ Blackbelt but it is his striking that’s shining lately showing good movement and a long troublesome jab. Maia is almost 42 years old but still stays dangerous. On the ground his hands and submission arsenal is unmatched. He has taken substantial damage in late fights where his inability to get takedowns leaves him a sitting duck. With no realistic title shot on the horizon you need to question his motivation going forward.
Stylistically this is a fight Maia should triumph, but with all the athletic and striking advantages in Martins favour the outcome is a lot closer than the line suggests. Maia will need early takedowns and maybe a finish in round one. Martin must make this difficult and if he’s trapped, has got the BJJ to at least survive the entry strikes. Into around two will be at which Martin will take over as it is no secret Maia slows drastically. This is a good spot to choose the hungry young fighter at dogs odds.Drew Dober Breakdown
Dober comes into this matchup off a reduction, but fought well and is showing a lot of improvements fight to fight. He’s developed his power to compliment his fairly precise striking style. Another aspect to his game is his wrestling, which he looks to mix into his offence more frequently. No world beater, but a well rounded fighter with a solid chin signifies Dober matches up well with other reduced level fighters.
Polo Reyes is 34 years old and his durability is now a huge question mark. Two of his last 3 fights have finished in a bad TKO loss. He throws with serious power but is not well rounded, as vulnerable by Had??ovi?? who dominated him around the ground before pounding out him. Essentially all of the skill benefits are with Dober leaving Reyes with few paths to success aside from a punchers chance. The Cost is steep but this struggle should be a straight forward success for Dober
Bet = Dober in 1.31 (-325) chances. Risk 5 Units to acquire 1.55 Units.
Vinc Pichel Breakdown
This is a classic big favourite prospect carrying a step up trap. Roberts has a great deal of hype but has neglected to spark up to now against some lacklustre contest. There are some obvious holes in his game at which he’s backed up readily and retains his chin high. Pitchel is coming back after another layoff and at 36 there’s a chance he would look skinnier. He’s got big power and are going to want to force a brawl in which his durability and toughness can shine.
This should be a competitive game where we can’t overlook the chances on Pichel. Roberts has potential but has not revealed anything yet to warrant this kind of price . Look for the veteran to force striking trades and property some power shots. A KO is potential or close decision also probably.
Bet = Pichel at 3.50 (+250) chances. Risk 2 Units to win 5.0 Units.
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